This week's highlights

With just under a month to go until people head to the ballot box, campaigns are well under way.

Last week Keir Starmer made an appearance in Swindon, an area Labour hopes to win, accompanied by Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Deputy Leader Angela Rayner, who introduced him as ‘the next British Prime Minister’. Starmer promised to ease the cost of living crisis by freezing council tax. The Lib Dems described Labour’s pledge to freeze council tax as a ‘sticking plaster’ which would not truly support people struggling, while the Conservatives argued that there are Labour councils across the country that have put up council tax this year. Levelling Up Secretary Michael Gove said ‘Labour town halls charge higher council tax, and a Labour-run Whitehall would do the same.’

A day before Labour’s launch, Lib Dem leader Ed Davey drove a tractor through a blue wall of painted hay bales, which were supposed to represent vulnerable Conservative seats. Davey said the Tories are ‘out of touch, out of ideas and out of excuses’.

The Conservatives held a very low-key campaign launch a week earlier, with Rishi Sunak making a very brief visit to the Black Country, only inviting local media.

Tory ministers have been told to spend three days campaigning ahead of 4th May. Similarly, Labour frontbenchers have been told to make three visits to allocated target areas, which include Swindon, Plymouth and Stoke.

Following a change to the law last year, voters now have to show photo ID before being issued a ballot paper in polling stations for general, local and police and crime commissioner elections, as well as referendums. In the run up to the local elections, people have voiced concerns over the new rules, saying that it could prevent some people from voting. Many have spoken about the potential disenfranchising of younger voters.

The Conservatives currently have the biggest number of seats and councils in England, holding majority control of 85 councils and defending 3,365 seats. The Tories have the most to lose, defending four in 10 of all seats up for grabs. Labour has majority control of 50 councils and 2,131 seats. They will be looking to reclaim the red wall of the North and the Midlands, while the Lib Dems will be aiming to make gains in the Tory blue wall in the South. The Lib Dems have control of 16 authorities and are defending 1,223 seats. A third of English councils currently have no overall control. The Greens are defending 239 seats and Independents or local parties have majority control over five councils. These contests represent the biggest test of public opinion before next year’s general election, so the stakes are particularly high.

However, at the local elections on 2nd May, when the eventual largest party at the European parliamentary election – the Brexit party – did not stand, the Conservative party fared significantly better, their electoral weaknesses partially masked by similar weaknesses within the Labour party at the time. Both Labour and the Conservatives got 28% of the national vote. In terms of gains and losses, the picture was stark, the Conservative party lost over 1300 councillors and lost majority political control of 44 councils. Labour lost control of 6 councils and the Liberal Democrats gained control of 10. The big change of the night was the increase in the number of NOC (No Overall Control) councils, where 37 new councils found themselves with no majority party.

Judging the 2023 elections against this backdrop will be difficult. So much has changed since then – we have had a general election, four prime ministers, and Britain has left the European Union. On a national level, the abnormal political landscape of 2019 where the Conservative party had its worst national performance ever in May, and then won a majority in the House of Commons in December, makes comparison quite difficult.

Most importantly, local issues, local parties, councils electing by thirds and the nature of the councils up for election each year muddy the messages that local elections send.

The 2022 local elections saw a difficult night for the Conservative party, which lost over 300 seats and close to a dozen councils. But no single party definitely benefited from the Conservatives’ weak performance. Because the Conservatives are defending the most councils this year (see the graph below) their potential losses are also highest. This will not be an inviting prospect for a party that, according to public opinion polls, has seen a significant drop in its popularity since last May.

As the graph below, Councils up for election by party control, shows, 36% of the councils up for election are Conservative-majority councils, and a further 35% have no single party forming a majority (learn more about these here). Only 20% are currently Labour-controlled. Even just looking at single-party majority councils, the Conservatives are starting the night with more to lose than the other parties.

As well as toppling Conservative majorities, other parties could seek to gain from the large proportion of councils where there is currently no majority. As the graph below (NOC councils by control) shows, most of these councils with no overall majority for any one party are held by the Conservative party in minority administrations, again introducing a way in which their overall control of councils could be diminished by a weak performance in these elections. In the analysis below, we have picked out a few of the important councils from each region where a small change in seats could dramatically alter the balance of power in the council.

As the graph above, Councils up for election by region and party control, shows, in terms of the national picture there are a few regions that stand out. The South East and East of England have both the largest number of elections, and the largest number of defending Conservative councils.

Labour are likely to be aiming to gain seats in these elections, especially given they do not have many councils to defend compared to the Conservatives. They will definitely want to make progress in the North East, including retaking Middlesbrough Council, even if winning the vote for the directly elected Mayor is a more difficult prospect. Overall, these elections represent an opportunity for Labour to improve from a relatively low baseline.

In the 2019 elections, the Liberal Democrats gained 10 councils, a significant success. This was complimented by a strong showing in 2022, where they gained over 200 seats. They are defending 17 councils this year. Look out for Sheffield City, where they will be holding off Labour, the current largest party and their coalition partners, from forming a majority. In Stockport or Teignbridge a few extra seats in either council could see them form majority administrations where they currently govern as minority parties. In Brentwood, denying the Conservatives just one seat could change the council from a Conservative majority to NOC.

There are a few councils where the Greens will have set their sights on improving their standing. In the Green’s most successful area – Brighton and Hove – they already form a minority administration, and may be seeking to turn this into a majority. In one of our ones to watch, Mid Suffolk council, a small change in seats could see the Greens overtake the Conservatives as the largest party.

In terms of party control, the Reform party represents an unknown quantity in these local elections. Although it is unlikely they will take control of any councils, and in the last few sets of local elections they won only a couple of seats, in close contests, especially those where the Conservatives are holding on to a small majority, their successes could become decisive given the difficult opinion polls for the Conservative party.

As always, we are most interested in areas where the control of the council might shift. Although using local elections to predict the fortunes of the major national parties is tempting, we shouldn’t overlook that the decisions made in May will have a major impact on how essential local services – like adult social care, children’s services and housing – are run. A small change in a party’s successes on a national scale could shift the balance at a local level, and have  a great impact on our daily lives.

Throughout our analysis we have paid attention to the “marginality” of a council. In our definition, marginality is the average of the absolute difference between the largest party and the number of seats needed for a majority, and the absolute difference between the number of seats held by the largest party and the second largest party. We designed this so it would show us not only whether there is a majority, but also how big the majority is, and how powerful the largest party is compared to the second largest party.

Essentially, this single score for each council shows us both how secure the largest party’s position is, and how likely the council is to change control. The very dark shape in the North West is Manchester, where the Labour party has 91 out of 96 seats. It is the least marginal of all the councils having elections this year.

For further analysis have a look at LGIU’s Ones to watch guide to the 2023 local elections.

Join LGIU for a discussion, jointly hosted with Ipsos, about the State of the Locals in 2023. Our panel of political and local government experts will discuss their views on the state of local democracy and local elections.

Online policy event | 21 April | 10:00-10:45 | FREE TO ATTEND

There are roughly 17,000 councillors in England.

Demographic data on councillors is hard to find as it is not regularly or officially collected. The most recent data comes from the LGA 2022 Census of Local Authority Councillors which shows that:

• 40% of councillors were retired, and 32% were in full- or part-time employment;
• 61% of councillors held other voluntary or unpaid positions, such as school governorships;
• 64% of councillors held a degree or equivalent qualification; only 4% did not hold any qualification;
• 59% of councillors were male, and 41% female;
• The average age of councillors in 2022 was 60 years; 16% were aged under-45 and 42% were aged 65 or over;
• 92% described their ethnic background as white;
• 84% described their sexual orientation as heterosexual or straight;
• 16% had a long-term health problem or disability which limited their daily activities;
• 46% of councillors had a responsibility as a carer, most commonly looking after a child.

Make sure you check out...

Are you an LGIU member?

The LGIU – Local Government Information Unit – is a not-for-profit, non-partisan membership organisation. We are for local government and anyone with an interest in local democracy and finding local solutions to the challenges that we all face. Our resources, innovative research and connections are relied on by colleagues across the globe. If you are a councillor or employee of one of our member organisations, then you too are a member – sign up on our website today and start using all of your member-only resources.

Not a member – why not find out more?