This week's highlights

With polling day drawing closer, the stakes are rising in a set of local elections which will likely be seen as a verdict on Sunak’s premiership. The Tories are widely predicted to lose seats, but just how badly they lose will set the tone going into the next general election.

Labour have so far chosen to focus on the Government’s national failures on issues like crime and the cost of living crisis. Last week the opposition party launched a controversial new ad campaign, which has provoked backlash from across the political spectrum. The first in a series of ‘attack ads’, which has been viewed more than 21 million times on Twitter, draws attention to the Tories’ poor track record on crime, and features a photograph of the Prime Minister alongside ‘Do you think adults convicted of sexually assaulting children should go to prison? Rishi Sunak doesn’t’.

Despite criticism, Labour officials have doubled down on their messaging, with one source telling Sky News ‘It’s mission accomplished – we’ve dominated the news agenda and started a serious conversation about the Tories appalling record on crime’. Labour’s latest advert criticises Sunak’s wife’s non-dom tax status, and the party apparently plans to continue to focus its messaging on the cost of living crisis and crime.

In a letter to his top team, Keir Starmer said that in the run up to 4 May the party will ‘continue to focus relentlessly on exposing the failures of 13 years of this divided and weak Conservative government and demonstrate how we would deliver for working people across the country’. The more aggressive approach could be a response to recent polling which reveals that Labour has the narrowest lead since Sunak has become Prime Minister; while the party still sits a comfortable 14 points ahead, senior Labour figures likely believe they cannot afford to be complacent.

Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats are still going into the elections fighting, as they plan on fielding their highest proportion of candidates since 2007. Lib Dem candidates are planning to stand in 60% of contested seats in England and Wales (up 7% percentage points from 2019), whilst the Tories – who have always aimed to run full slates of candidates where possible – are down by 3% to 93%. This reduction in Tory candidates could signify that the party is resigned to consolidating its losses.

There are 43 elections in the East of England this May – 37 district councils and six unitaries. Most of the councils up for election here are currently run by the Conservative party, and a good night for the Conservatives would have to include defending a few of these closer seats, such as Brentwood or Rochford. As we can see from the diagram above, most of the really close contests are along the East coast in places like Maldon.

On Maldon District Council, if the Conservatives manage to get just a few more councillors they will be in a position to make up an absolute majority on the council, and will regain a council that was Conservative for years before they lost their majority in 2021.

Brentwood Borough Council is another interesting contest, this time between the Conservative party, who currently have a tiny majority, and the next biggest party, the Liberal Democrats, who are only a handful of seats away from winning a majority of their own. If the Conservative party fail to hold on to Brentwood  it will be the first time since 2015 they have not commanded a majority on the council.

Mid Suffolk District Council is the first of our councils on this list where the Green party are the main challengers. The last time these seats were up for election, in 2019, the Green party managed to pick up 34% of the vote, up from 15% in 2015, and a similar swing this year would see them take the council this year. However, the Conservative party will be hoping to pick up two seats to give themselves a full majority on the council.

The Conservative party lost control of Rochford District Council in February of this year after three councillors left the Conservative group on the council. Only a third of the seats here are up for election, but it would be enough for the Conservatives to regain their majority, or for the independent groups that make up their main challengers to continue to deny them the opportunity.

Tendring District Council is another close contest on the east coast, and like Maldon, the Conservatives are challenged by a group of independents. As recently as 2015, UKIP had a major presence on the council, and it remains to be seen whether the first elections post-Brexit will see a significant change in Tendring. The Conservatives only need four more seats to get an overall majority.

One particularly interesting council is Babergh District Council, which has been run by a coalition since the Conservatives lost their overall majority in 2019. However, the Conservatives are still the largest party and will be hoping to gain a few seats and retake the council from the Liberal Democrat/Green/Independent coalition.

There are small Conservative majorities in East Cambridgeshire District Council, Great Yarmouth Borough Council, Welwyn Hatfield and King’s Lynn and West Norfolk where losing just a couple of seats in any of these councils could deprive them of their single-party control. The same is true for the Liberal Democrats in Chelmsford City, although they will most likely still be the largest party.  On Peterborough City Council the Conservatives are currently holding on to a minority, and although no party is likely to independently overtake them, a broad coalition could overtake the council if the Conservatives lose a significant number of seats.

No single party has control of Bedford Borough Council which is split pretty evenly between the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats, however the important race here is for the elected mayor – currently held by the Liberal Democrats’ Dave Hodgson, who has been Mayor since 2009. In the last few elections the Conservatives have come in second, so watch out to see if this year, with the new electoral system for mayoral elections, the Liberal Democrats can hold on.

There are a few councils with no overall control where small changes could result in the formation of new coalitions – in North Hertfordshire Labour and the Liberal Democrats are currently running the council together, but the Conservatives are the largest party. Similar coalitions lead the councils in Colchester and Southend-on-Sea, each time with the Conservatives as the largest party but not participating in the coalition.

For further analysis have a look at LGIU’s Ones to watch guide to the 2023 local elections.

Councils are responsible for a very wide range of services, many of which are statutory (i.e. they are legally required to fulfil them).

These include:

• Education, for example, providing schools, transport to get children to school and providing opportunities for adult learning;
• Housing, such as finding accommodation for people in need and maintaining social housing;
• Social Services, for example, caring for and protecting children, older people and disabled people;
• Highways and transport, including maintaining roads and managing traffic flow;
• Waste management, including collecting rubbish and recycling;
• Leisure and cultural services, for example, providing libraries, leisure services and arts venues;
• Consumer protection, such as enforcing trading standards and licensing taxis;
• Environmental health and services, for example, making sure that the food provided in pubs and restaurants is safe to eat, and controlling pollution locally;
• Planning, including managing local development and making sure buildings are safe;
• Economic development, for example, attracting new businesses and encouraging tourism;
• Emergency planning for things like floods or terrorist attacks.

In England, the responsibilities are divided up between the district and county council in two-tier areas and extra duties may be discharged by combined authorities in places which have one.

What is local government responsible for?

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