Democracy, devolution and governance

Local elections 2023: results and analysis

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One week on…

The sheer number of councils that changed control in one way or another was fairly staggering in this set of English local elections. LGIU’s Greg Stride takes a closer look at what happened region by region, with the help of some maps!

Results of note at 8pm

East Midlands

The story across the East Midlands is one of serious Conservative losses. The party lost their majorities in Rugby and Staffordshire Moorlands, leaving those councils with no overall majority.

North Kesteven returned a rare new Conservative council, making this one of the very few places the party improved on their previous performance – surrounded by councils, such as Newark and Sherwood and South Kesteven, where the party lost their majorities.

East of England

As we outlined in our Ones to Watch guide, East of England had a lot to play for with 33 councils holding elections and a high number of which were predicted to be close contests.

As with many of the other regions, one of the biggest stories in the East of England was Conservatives losing their council majorities to no overall control: Brentwood, Broadland, East Hertfordshire, East Suffolk, Great Yarmouth, Hertsmere, Welwyn Hatfield, West Suffolk, all of these places saw former Conservative majorities disappear. In some of them the Conservatives will form majority governments or coalitions, but the symbolic importance of this should not be underestimated.

But this is not the only story in the East of England. There were two Conservative losses which are particularly noteworthy because another party was able to form a full majority. The first was Dacorum, who announced that the Liberal Democrats had won more than half of the council’s seats. The Liberal Democrats picked up 9 new seats and the Conservatives lost 13.

Even more dramatically, the Green party won their first ever council majority in Mid Suffolk, building on considerable success last election by winning a further 12 seats, 10 of which were taken directly from the Conservative party.

For the first time since 2015, the Conservatives have landed a majority in Brentwood as it changes from no overall control – this also was the first change of control announced in the 2023 Local Elections. On the other hand, Labour has picked up 8 new seats in North West Leicestershire, resulting in a change from Conservative-run to no overall control. Over in Hertsmere, the Conservative administration has lost out and is now hung between Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats.

North East

There were only 10 councils up for election in the North East this time, plus a Mayoral contest in Middlesbrough, and as was expected the councils around the Teesside and Hartlepool area have been the key ones to watch.

Labour did not win a majority in the parliamentary battleground of Hartlepool despite some expectations, and the council remains at no overall control. However, the party won the Middlesbrough mayoral race, taking control away from independent incumbent Andy Preston. They later added to this by winning a majority on Middlesbrough council, which had previously been under no overall control.

North West

The North West has partially bucked the trend in our analyses because there were very few Conservative councils there to start with, so the Conservatives’ fortunes there are not the main story. However, in councils like Ribble Valley and Pendle they did lose a few of their only majorities in the region.

Labour managed to move Blackpool from no overall control to a majority, and has won majorities in South Ribble and West Lancashire, where they previously ran minority administrations.

South East

The South East had the most councils up for election yesterday, with residents from 57 different councils heading to the polls. In general, the question was whether the Conservatives could hold onto the majority of councils here under their control.

As the results have come out the story has shifted a little to trying to understand some of the unusual dynamics that have seen councils flip in unpredictable ways. The three councils that exemplify this the best are the near-neighbours Slough, a council Labour lost, Bracknell Forest, a council they dramatically won from the Conservatives, and Winsdor and Maidenhead, a council the Conservatives lost to the Liberal Democrats.

One of the headliner stories of the day so far is certainly the flip of Windsor and Maidenhead Royal from Conservative to Liberal Democrats after a 16-year stint. Party leader, Ed Davey, seemed particularly happy about this win for several reasons, including the fact that the upcoming coronation will be held in a Lib Dem landscape now.

Medway has been confirmed as a Labour majority, marking another loss for Conservatives.

South West

The most dramatic result in the South West, without a doubt, is Labour gaining Swindon from the Conservatives. Labour launched their campaign in this council, but their victory was by no means guaranteed. As we pointed out in our pre-election video, because they needed to win a significant number of seats to take the council, Labour winning Swindon will be taken as proof they’ve had a good night.

South Gloucestershire moved from a Conservative council to no overall control. The Conservatives remain the largest single party, but have only 23 of the 31 seats needed for a majority.

A slightly unexpected result in West Devon, where the Conservatives have lost their majority. However, no single party has benefited from their loss, and it may be a council where the Conservatives can govern as a minority.

Torbay was a very rare Conservative gain from no overall control. Particularly surprising because over the last few hours we have seen nearby Devon councils, such as South Hams, Mid Devon and Teignbridge move decisively to the Liberal Democrats.

Traditionally renowned for flipping between Labour and Conservative control, Plymouth City Council has made the jump once again as Labour takes control from Conservatives this year. The outgoing Conservative minority administration had only just elected a new leader after the previous leader, Richard Bingley, got the axe following a tree felling controversy.

West Midlands

East Staffordshire changed hands from Conservative to Labour for the first time in decades, after Labour picked up 21 seats on the council to the Conservatives’ 15, essentially reversing the positions they held before the election.

As highlighted in LGIU’s Ones to Watch guide, Bromsgrove has lost its small Conservative majority in these elections and turned to no overall control. Similarly, Cannock Chase and North Warwickshire have both been declared losses for Conservatives and turned to no overall control.

Despite being in Conservative control for two decades, Stratford on Avon was flagged on our Ones to Watch guide due to their slim majority going into these elections. This precarious position has now resulted in a Liberal Democrat gain as they hold a majority.

Going to show that you just can’t predict everything when it comes to local elections, Tamworth has shifted from Conservative to no overall control overnight. However, the biggest story of the night so far really focuses on Labour’s gain in Stoke-on-Trent, having taken a win from a no overall control administration with a Conservative minority.

A similar buzz is surrounding Worcester which for the last 20 years has swung between Conservative to no overall control. Today, it makes a return to no overall control (despite ambitions from Labour to take hold) however, it is worth noting that what was a Conservative minority administration is now a Labour/Green administration.

Yorkshire and Humber

Liberal Democrats manage to see off Labour’s challenge in Hull and retain a majority with 32 to their 25 seats. Equally in Sheffield no party managed to get a majority, despite the Liberal Democrats and Labour vying for it – the picture after the election looks much the same as before.

Everything you need for local elections, before, during and after

Check out our comprehensive resources, from key polling on trust and voter ID to guidance to support for newly elected councillors.

LGIU’s afternoon analysis

Watch LGIU’s Dr Jonathan Carr-West and Dr Greg Stride discuss the state of play currently and what key areas to keep an eye on as the results keep coming in.

The results of note at 3pm

What the country looked like before the elections and the picture at 3pm

After what has been a relatively slow morning in terms of announcements, the remaining 2023 Local Election results and now beginning to come in thick and fast – and with it comes a lot of control changes. Although the end of play is still some time away, these are the results that we think are particularly noteworthy at this point in time:

East Midlands

The question we posed for Boston this year in our Ones to Watch guide was whether the small Conservative majority would hold up? The answer is no as control shifts to an independent majority instead.

East of England

Welwyn Hatfield has joined Hertsmere and Brentwood in the East of England as another council where the Conservatives have lost their majority, but no other party has taken control.

East Hertfordshire is another council in the region that has seen a Conservative change to no overall control – in fact, the Green Party now has the highest number of seats (by 1) at 17. Plus, South Kesteven mirrors the same change from a Conservative hold to no overall control.

North East

Labour did not win a majority in the parliamentary battleground of Hartlepool despite some expectations, and the council remains at no overall control. However, the party won the Middlesbrough mayoral race, taking control away from independent incumbent Andy Preston.

North West

As noted as a possibility in our Ones to Watch guide, Labour has managed to move Blackpool from no overall control to a majority.

South East

One of the headliner stories of the day so far is certainly the flip of Windsor and Maidenhead Royal from Conservative to Liberal Democrats after a 16-year stint. Party leader, Ed Davey, seemed particularly happy about this win for several reasons, including the fact that the upcoming coronation will be held in a Lib Dem landscape now.

As mentioned in our results overview earlier, Medway has now been confirmed as a Labour majority, marking another loss for Conservatives.

South West

The most dramatic result in the South West, without a doubt, is Labour gaining Swindon from the Conservatives. Labour launched their campaign in this council, but their victory was by no means guaranteed. As we pointed out in our pre-election video, because they needed to win a significant number of seats to take the council, Labour winning Swindon will be taken as proof they’ve had a good night.

South Gloucestershire moved from a Conservative council to no overall control. The Conservatives remain the largest single party, but have only 23 of the 31 seats needed for a majority.

A slightly unexpected result in West Devon, where the Conservatives have lost their majority. However, no single party has benefited from their loss, and it may be a council where the Conservatives can govern as a minority.

West Midlands

East Staffordshire changed hands from Conservative to Labour for the first time in decades, after Labour picked up 21 seats on the council to the Conservatives’ 15, essentially reversing the positions they held before the election.

As highlighted in LGIU’s Ones to Watch guide, Bromsgrove has lost its small Conservative majority in these elections and turned to no overall control. Similarly, Cannock Chase and North Warwickshire have both been declared losses for Conservatives and turned to no overall control.

Despite being in Conservative control for two decades, Stratford on Avon was flagged on our Ones to Watch guide due to their slim majority going into these elections. This precarious position has now resulted in a Liberal Democrat gain as they hold a majority.

Yorkshire and Humber

Liberal Democrats manage to see off Labour’s challenge in Hull and retain a majority with 32 to their 25 seats.

The number of councils declared: 109/230

The seats as they stand (according to the BBC): 

Labour Conservative  Liberal Democrats Independent Green
1,169 857 592 316 158
+220 -370 +89 -11 +81

Want a refresher on what’s at stake today?

Our Ones to Watch guide highlights all the key races and who has the most to lose (or gain!)

Watch highlights from the guide.

Our analysis at 11am

Jonathan Carr-West and Greg Stride discuss how things are looking across the country this morning- with maps.

How the maps look at 8am

We have been taking a look at what has changed so far and the easiest way to do this is with maps, so here goes.

What the country looked like before the elections and the picture at 8am

 

And by region…

East Midlands before the elections and at 8am

East of England before the elections and at 8am

North East England before the elections and at 8am

 

 

North West England before the elections and at 8am

 

South West England before the elections and at 8am

South East England before the elections and at 8am

West Midlands before the elections and at 8am

Yorkshire and Humber before the election and at 8am

 

 

 

The results of note at 6am

Our team at LGIU has been up overnight to keep an eye on the key results across England as ballot counts are declared. Of course, we’ll be here all day long too with more than 8,000 councillors set to be elected across 230 councils today. Be sure to keep this tab bookmarked to stay in the loop with LGIU’s election coverage.

Although it’s still early in the overall count there have already been some very noteworthy gains and losses as of 6am. Here are the key points:

East Midlands

The first change in the East Midlands comes from East Lindsey as the Conservative hold turns to no overall control. Keep an eye out for West Lindsey which we flagged in our Ones to Watch guide as potentially being another close contest between Conservatives and Liberal Democrats.

East of England

For the first time since 2015, the Conservatives have landed a majority in Brentwood as it changes from no overall control – this also was the first change of control announced in the 2023 Local Elections. On the other hand, Labour has picked up 8 new seats in North West Leicestershire, resulting in a change from Conservative-run to no overall control. Over in Hertsmere, the Conservative administration has lost out and is now hung between Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats.

As we outlined in our Ones to Watch guide, East of England has a lot to play for today with 33 councils holding elections and a high number of which are predicted to be close contests.

South East

As of 6am, we think there are still more votes to count but the leader of Medway has suggested a shift from Conservative to Labour – stay tuned for official confirmation.

South West

Traditionally renowned for flipping between Labour and Conservative control, Plymouth City Council has made the jump once again as Labour takes control from Conservatives this year. The outgoing Conservative minority administration had only just elected a new leader after the previous leader, Richard Bingley, got the axe following a tree felling controversy.

In our Ones to Watch guide, we highlighted this region as being of particular interest as it has the potential to ‘change colour’ all over due to the high number of seats up for grabs in each council.

West Midlands

Going to show that you just can’t predict everything when it comes to local elections, Tamworth has shifted from Conservative to no overall control. However, the biggest story of the night so far really focuses on Labour’s gain in Stoke-on-Trent, having taken a win from a no overall control administration with a Conservative minority.

A similar buzz is surrounding Worcester which for the last 20 years has swung between Conservative to no overall control. Today, it makes a return to no overall control (despite ambitions from Labour to take hold) however, it is worth noting that what was a Conservative minority administration is now a Labour/Green administration.

And…

winning the coveted title of the first result announcement of the 2023 Local Elections is Halton in Cheshire – maintaining a Labour hold.

The number of councils declared so far: 52/230

The seats as they stand (according to the BBC): 

Labour Conservative  Liberal Democrats Independent Green
560 384 294 161 46
+103 -169 +49 -3 +26

Jonathan Carr-West, Chief Executive, Local Government Information Unit (LGIU) said:

“With nearly all of the overnight results in, these elections are broadly conforming to expectations. So far, it’s been a good night for Labour with big wins in Stoke-on-Trent and Plymouth; key targets in very different parts of the country. The Liberal Democrats will also be pleased to be holding councils like North Norfolk, Hull and Cotswold.

The Conservatives are losing seats and councils such as Tamworth, Brentwood and North West Leicestershire moving to no overall control. So far though, it’s a steady stream of losses not a tidal wave and is within the admittedly very pessimistic expectations they have set out.  But, there is still a long way to go.

And, while many will look to see what these local election results tell us about national politics – we must remember that the real outcome of these polls is the election of councillors who over the course of the next four years will shape local services and provide local leadership. They will be making choices against a background of unprecedented pressure with council finances stretched thinner than ever before and demand for services rising.

Communities in Stoke-on-Trent or Plymouth will now have different administrations making different choices about the services we rely most upon in their daily lives. We shouldn’t forget that this is the real story for them this morning.”



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